a pic of my brain The Compleat Iconoclast
 
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The Revolution Has Just Begun


"I do not fear computers. I fear lack of them."

Isaac Asimov It doesn't look like Moore's law will be repealed anytime soon.

That 2 GHz P4 whiz-bang desktop that you just paid two grand for will look like an old 286 in about 5-7 years, and guys like me will be dumpster-diving for your castoffs. :-)

The implications for society of this are nearly incomprehensible. The power of these processors will allow applications in Artificial Intelligence, delivery and perhaps more importantly, generation, of multimedia content, pure science research, and a host of other apps to continue to completely alter the way we work and play.

The "Computer Revolution" is still in it's infancy.

From a speech by Pat Gelsinger, Intel's Chief Technology Officer:

"Gelsinger said he has "absolute confidence" that the IT industry will continue to exploit Moore's Law over the next 25 or 30 years. Recent research developments, such as a 10-nanometer terahertz transistor with a dielectric layer just three atoms thick, will lead to new IT products later this decade, he said.

By 2010, the typical desktop computer will have a 30-GHz processor that performs 1 trillion instructions per second. Handheld computers will run at clock speeds of 5 GHz, faster than today's high-end systems, Gelsinger said.

The Pentium 4, Intel's current 32-bit processor, has enough design headroom to reach 10-GHz clock speeds, Gelsinger said. Intel is now delivering its second-generation 64-bit Itanium CPU, code-named McKinley, for products that will come out later this year. McKinley's clock rate exceeds 1 GHz. The chip has 3M of onboard cache."

The only real bottleneck I see is the ability of programmers to actually use the vast processing power that will be available to them.


 
 
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