Well, the 4th came and went, with nothing much to show for it, save one whacko who may or may not have ever met a terrorist - the jury is still out.

We didn't even get a new message from Osama.

My conclusion - Osama is dead, probably buried before he was ready in a cave in Afghanistan. I don't claim to be infallible on this, God doesn't whisper The Truth in my ear every day, and I don't claim he does, either. :-) But it seems the likely choice.

Osama knows that the Arab world respects power, and success, more than the concept of Right. This is ingrained into their very culture, most specifically, their religion. Defeat means that Allah is not on your side. He knows, or knew, that to keep his juice on the Arab street means that he needs to show that he could take our best shot and survive unscathed.

Every day that goes by without another tape airing on Al-Jezeera makes this more likely.

Meanwhile, the Arab world has learned that regime change means regime change, and it doesn't take a coalition to raze a dictator's village. Saddam's days are growing short.